Sunday, June 29, 2008

The Free-Fall in Fertility

According to studies and continued observation by local endocrinologists, the men of mid-Missouri are undergoing a crash in sperm levels. The problem started cropping up in the mid-1990s, and was cemented during a 1999 study which compared healthy sperm levels between major metropolitan areas. For use in comparison, Columbia, MO was used to help establish a baseline, assuming that the presence of fewer toxic pollutants would lead to higher, healthier levels.

However, it was not to be. Columbia residents' levels maxed out at 57% of the levels of males in New York City, for example; observe the graph at the right for more detail. Most stunning is that Missouri men came from different backgrounds and lifestyles, were of varied ages and professions, and were both long-term and short-term residents of Columbia.

Researchers participating in the 1999 study reexamined Missouri sperm and subjected it to detailed tests for pesticides and chemicals known to be in use in the region. Three pesticides were found to have statistically significant links with the low sperm counts, with two more possible contributors identified as well. One of these pesticides, diazinon, was banned from residential use in 2004, yet still allowed to be used in agriculture. Whatever the case, a follow-up study was conducted by the Centers for Disease Control, with results expected this summer. We will be following this closely, rest assured, for professional and personal reasons.

As the researchers in the article state, blaming one chemical or one pesticide is likely in error. Much more likely are the complex and subtle interactions between varying doses of several chemicals incipient to the lifestyle in the region, coupled with other environmental and lifestyle factors. It is impossible to predict how cocktails of chemicals administered over a lifetime in low doses will interact within the human body. If you would like to know more on this kind of research, check out the research on chemicals in adults, newborns, and pets.

But let us be clear- this is more than likely not a mid-Missouri problem. Whatever the cause is, it is highly possible that these results could be repeated throughout the mid-America region. If there are demonstrable links between pesticide use and low fertility in males, this is something that demands our immediate attention. We will be awaiting the CDC report, and hope to talk about this more in the future.

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Energy in the USA: Temporary Measures vs. Systemic Problems

For years, the SUV has served as a particularly potent symbol of American consumption and excess; it seemed to be fueled on hubris alone, considering our willingness to persist with such maddeningly inefficient vehicles used for such ill-suited purposes. I'll never forget rolling into Home Depot one day, and seeing a new, blinged-out H2 with the vanity plate "8 MPG." Oh, dear driver, haven't you heard- do not taunt the automotive gods?

Well, consider that thunder called down from on high. By now, you have surely heard that GM is downsizing production of SUVs in the face of widespread consumer migration (panicked flight?) to more efficient vehicles. Plants will be closed, positions will be eliminated, and stunningly, the Hummer division is likely to be spun off from the GM marque, if anyone can be found willing to take on that albatross. In effect, GM is stating that the business model of large, inefficient vehicles is no longer a viable way to do business in this new landscape. Rapidly losing market share to more fuel efficient vehicles, particularly those from overseas, GM has taken a look at the marketplace and reached a painful conclusion. According to CEO Rick Wagoner, "These higher gasoline prices are changing consumer behavior and rapidly," said Wagoner. "We don't think this is a temporary spike or shift. We think it is permanent."

That is a major leap, and a huge realization by one of our largest automotive companies. There will always be a niche in the market for SUVs and pickups, but that's just it- a niche. The days of pickups and SUVs lining the nearest big-box parking lot are numbered.

And so we turn to Washington for guidance in these tough times. President Bush, rock us with some wisdom. How can we escape this potential death knell for unrestrained gasoline consumption, that which underpins our whole economy and serves to exacerbate these economic strains we all suffer? How will we navigate our way from here?:

Bush, reaching back to the earliest days of his administration, resurrected GOP demands for new drilling in the Alaska wilderness, fewer restrictions on oil refineries and other measures aimed at lowering fuel prices through higher production.


Sigh. Members of Congress, what say you?

"Only President Bush could allow Big Oil to write our nation's energy policy," said Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.).

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) responded, "It's clear that, on the production side of the equation, this new majority is not interested in doing anything."

An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind, and tit-for-tat makes the whole world complacent. And all the while, oil companies are making record profits while crying out for greater refinery capacity and access to domestic oil reserves.

This, to me, seems like a lot of old solutions to new problems, new realities and unavoidable truths. The elephant in the corner that no one, not Congress, the Administration, or the two men vying to lead the next one, want to step up and accept responsibility for the fact that energy consumption in the US is out of control, and drastic measures need to be undertaken to alleviate the pressure. We need leadership to focus the on the issue that Alternatives Must Be Sought, and the systemic problem of energy consumption will not be alleviated by any of the whole rack of half-measures dreamed up by those in power. Not gas-tax holidays, not clean coal, not CAFE rules that take effect in 20years, none of that.

We talk a lot about increasing supply to match demand. Why not approach it from another angle? Why isn't there serious discussion on reducing demand? As the article states, while increased coal capacity creates more greenhouses gases, and nuclear plants create lethal waste, the only byproduct of "negawatt" projects are increased wealth. While there are several problems with large-scale energy reduction efforts, there are still huge opportunities for investment and profit by companies positioned to take advantage. Reducing demand through projects such as LEED construction standards, appliance efficiency, and urban planning innovation are a start. Not more, not less- a step in the right direction.

No one wants the economy to be torn to shreds in a rapid switch to alternative energies, so if that is the case, we had better get started on that switch now, while it can still be palatable and advantageous. Let's start with reducing our demand on a large scale, more than just using better lightbulbs or EnergyStar refrigerators. Keep going with that, and don't take the easy way out. This does not mean switching out Saudi oil for Louisiana Coast oil or oil shale from Utah- just another band-aid. Let's take this energy effort all the way. Let's not run up to the edge, screech to a stop, and convince ourselves that we've done all we can do. Let's see this one through.

It's been said before, so all that means to me is that I don't have to find the link here- but it's time to cut the subsidies to oil companies and send that money to investing in a new energy infrastructure. Wind, solar, tidal, you name it, we need a much more diverse portfolio. Subsidize the development of hybrid or clean cars that actually fill the needs of American customers- vehicles that can do the work on the farm, or haul our goods cross-country, and keep them affordable for the common man and woman. Your Prius is not up to the task. Furthermore, it's time to put some kind of financial incentive on reducing energy consumption at the home, municipal, or state level. Yes, by 'incentive' that might mean 'disincentive.' That's how it works.

As it were, we actually have a case study to draw from. I originally wrote about this on my other blog, but the city of Juneau, Alaska recently had some severe power difficulties. After avalanches severely hampered the ability of power companies to send electricity to the city, rates rose sky-high. With enough forewarning, residents of Juneau were able to cut their power consumption by 30%.

In one week. The entire city. Encouraging, to say the least, and it speaks volume to the abilities we have to reduce consumption with the right incentives.

Think about the money to be made on all these possibilities. Think about the kind of investment that is possible, even for those rooted in the old energy economy. This is how we have to view the problem- not even as a problem, but a grand opportunity to preserve and enhance our way of life. It's not about limping along to the next season, hoping that supply will stay stable, and the economy will allow us to keep doing things as they have always been done. The world is changing far too quickly to count on that. It's about finding a new way to live, and a new way to organize our economy. If we do it right, we will all win.

We just need to shut up, face up to it, and try. Shall we?

Monday, June 9, 2008

The Geography of High Gas Prices


Looks like it's going to be a gasoline-themed week this week; it's on your minds, it's definitely on ours, so let's run with it, shall we?

Today's view comes from the International Herald Tribune, observing how although the national average is now over $4.00/gallon, the pain at the pump is much more acute in rural regions across the US.

People are giving up meat so they can buy fuel. Gasoline theft is rising. And drivers are running out of gas more often, leaving their cars by the side of the road until they can scrape together gasoline money.

The disparity between rural America and the rest of the country is a matter of simple home economics. Nationwide, Americans now spend about 4 percent of their take-home income on gasoline. By contrast, in some counties in the Mississippi Delta, that figure has surpassed 13 percent.

As a result, gasoline expenses are rivaling what families spend on food and housing.

The article explains many factors that led to this standard. Rural areas are by nature spread wide and far-flung, with many workers having long commutes over less-maintained roads, and often in older, larger vehicles with suitable awful mileage. Jobs are scarce enough in rural areas, and workers may have little choice but to seek work hours away. Economists are saying that if this keeps up, it could accelerate the loss of population and tax base to urban jobs, even reaching the point where working less would be the most economically viable choice for those that remain.

It's a pretty dicey, touch-and-go situation. I don't know if any readers out there want to offer their input, but I know I'd like to hear it.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Gas Prices and Gas Taxes -- A different look...

I was doing a little browsing this morning before heading to work and came across the following an article in the Washington Post discussing the price of gasoline and its effects on things like fuel efficiency, etc.

The author proposes using a tax as a means of setting a price floor for gasoline, so that our government is in direct control of curbing demand -- leading to a ripple effect throughout the automotive industry. In essence, the idea is that high gas prices are accomplishing what congress, through fuel efficiency and ethenol mandates, could not -- a transformation in America's automotive fleets from gas-guzzling SUV's to more fuel efficient compact cars and hybrid vehicles.

When the US government is setting the price of gasoline above $4/gallon, the government has control of where the money goes -- and the author believes this means the government could essentially refund the money back to consumers through a cut in payroll taxes to offset any pain felt at the pump.

Check out the original article in the link above, and start discussing whether you think it makes sense. I gotta get to work. :)